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Re: lwn article on the death of Fedora Legacy

On 10/24/06, Mike McCarty <Mike McCarty sbcglobal net> wrote:
Stephen John Smoogen wrote:
> On 10/24/06, Mike McCarty <Mike McCarty sbcglobal net> wrote:
>> Stephen John Smoogen wrote:
>> > On 10/20/06, Matthew Miller <mattdm mattdm org> wrote:
>> >
>> >> On Fri, Oct 20, 2006 at 09:36:15AM -0600, Stephen John Smoogen wrote:
>> >> > The problem is that we are just beat. Jesse has a kid, a release
>> >> > cycle, a new knee, and a lot of other stuff on his real job. The
>> other
>> >> > people who have been doing stuff have also had 'stuff happen', and
>> >> > temporary schedule changes that have become permanent.
>> >>
>> >> Yes.
>> >>
>> >> In order to survive the project needs some real support from Red
>> Hat. (Or
>> >> some other large company who wants to do Red Hat a favor, but that
>> seems
>> >> even less likely.)
>> >>
>> >
>> >> Using the "Chasm" marketing model [*], without Legacy, Fedora is
>> only a
>> >> viable solution for Early Adopters and of dubious value to the second
>> >> "Pragmatist" group. However, Fedora has been enough of a success that
>> >> many
>> >> Pragmatists are indeed using Fedora.
>> >>
>> >
>> > I would argue that the pragmatists had been using it out of a trust
>> > model. They had used Red Hat Linux when it has crossed the chasm, and
>> I don't believe that Linux in general has crossed the chasm yet. I think
>> it's *all* still in the "early adopters" stage. But within the "Linux
>> community" (oxymoron) FC is the early adopters of the early adopters.
> That would put you in the conservative column then. So far at the 3

No, I am not. I'm in the Pragmatist group.

But you can't tell from what I wrote.

> 10,000+ person companies I have worked at for the last 5 years, we
> have replaced 90% of our Solaris, AIX, mainframes etc with Linux. From
> what I have been helping with at other sites this has been the trend

My opinion is based on the just recent (few months) decision of
State governments to use Open Document formats, rather than MS
proprietary. The people who use and promote Linux are, in the
business world at least, still the "golly gee!" crowd, and
not either the Pragmatists nor the Conservatives.

> in the last 4 years. One site a friend works at just bought 5000 sun
> boxes. Although they each have a Solaris license, none of them will be
> using Solaris.. its just that the AMD hardware was considered better
> to run the clusters on.

These are interesting stats, and indicate that Linux may now be
crossing the gap. I belive most offices are still firmly MS product
houses, and a move to Linux would not even be considered. I know
that every time I see a request for a resume, the format requested
is MS Word.

Well there is a big difference between talking about Linux on the
desktop and Linux in the server. I think Linux in the server area
crossed the chasm a long time ago with over a million servers being
used by most of the Fortune 500.

On the personal desktop side.. I think it has crossed the chasm, but
will never be the Gorilla (to steal a term from Moore's "Inside the
Tornado"). A market place is usually split between a gorilla, 1-2
chimps, and the remaining monkeys. The 500 lb gorilla can get 40-85%
of the market and the chimps and the monkeys get the rest. The Ape of
the desktop market is of course Windows. Currently the Chimp #1 is
and Chimp #2 might be some brand of Linux... and the various 'monkeys'
being other brands of Linux/BSD/etc.

Looking over my data, it looks to break down this way:

Servers:  Linux 50%, Windows 30%, Unix <10%, Mac/etc the rest
Desktops: Windows 70%, Mac 20%, Linux/FreeBSD/etc the remaining 10%.

[So while we had 3000 Linux desktops at one site.. it was only 10%]

The embedded market space  (small routers, firewalls, small security
systems, cameras, etc) , we found that a majority of new systems were
coming with Linux installed on them (even if we didnt know about it
until we took them apart).

Stephen J Smoogen. -- CSIRT/Linux System Administrator
How far that little candle throws his beams! So shines a good deed
in a naughty world. = Shakespeare. "The Merchant of Venice"

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